information for practice

The Shape of Things to Come presents evidence that certain age structures in populations can support governments’ efforts to create and maintain political stability, and that others can impede such efforts. The report does not argue that these demographic structures and their dynamics directly cause development failures or successes. Yet the influence of age structure on a state’s progress toward democracy, on the risk of an outbreak of civil conflict and on economic development is both significant and quantifiable. This report identifies for the first time four main types of age structures present in current populations: very young, youthful, transitional and mature. Chapters for each structure type describe their basic demographic parameters and the common development challenges and opportunities faced. A quantitative analysis shows that each structure has distinct traits in vulnerability to civil conflict, governance and economic growth.