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September 27, 2006

Retirement Security in the United States

As the nation begins the demographic shift of boomers moving towards retirement the population over age 65 will climb from just over 13 percent to nearly 22 percent. This shift will bring with it a progressive increase in attention to issues related to delaying retirement, retiree health availability and affordability, long term care, and how to produce income in retirement. There will be a tendency to rely upon generalizations or hypotheticals as opposed to detailed analysis. This report is intended to show the inherent risk in not undertaking detailed analysis for concerned parties. In Chapter 2 we review the current retirement income sources and provide detailed analysis of both the incidence and relative amounts. In addition to looking at merely the income levels currently generated, we summarize our previous simulation work projecting both retirement income and basic retirement expenses and potential uncovered health care costs in retirement. The primary objective of this analysis is to combine the simulated retirement income and wealth with the simulated retiree expenditures to determine how much each family unit would need to save today (as percentage of their current wages) to maintain a prespecified “comfort level” (i.e., confidence level) that they will be able to able to afford the simulated expenses for the remainder of the lifetime of the family unit (i.e., death of second spouse in a family). We find that if the status quo is not modified, the results are extremely depressing for those close to retirement age, especially single women.

Posted by Gary Holden at September 27, 2006 7:33 AM