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May 26, 2006

The Effect of Specific Welfare Policies on Poverty

This paper contributes to the literature by examining the effects of a rich and comprehensive set of specific welfare policies on poverty and deep poverty among women and children. We capture objective and detailed measures of states' policies by measuring policies individually, and in continuous values such as dollars, wherever possible. Nineteen specific policies are included in our analysis. These polices are grounded in a conceptual framework of how policies can influence poverty and are measured in great detail on a monthly basis from 1986 through 2000. Our approach leads to results that are robust to alternate specifications. Variation in welfare policies over time and across states enables us to measure the relationship between policy and poverty. States implemented changes to their welfare programs via welfare waivers in the early to mid-1990s and then used the flexibility provided by federal welfare reform's 1996 Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program to further change policies. We also examine how the effects of these policies change over time, as there can be short-run mechanical effects that are simply due to changes in grant size and eligibility rules, for example, as well as medium-run behavioral responses as families alter their work effort in response to changes in program rules. In addition, we contribute to the literature by examining the impact of welfare reform on the economic well-being of children as well as adults.

Posted by Gary Holden at May 26, 2006 8:35 AM