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Peacekeeping

Co-principal investigator (with Michael Gilligan, as well as Jenny Guardado and Sabrina Karim) for a survey of 1,400 residents of greater Monrovia in Liberia in 2012 aimed at understanding the micro-level effects of UN peacekeeping.

Survey-related materials, including sampling instructions, consent scripts, and questionnaires. All annotated R code and Stata code used to process raw data. A comprehensive set of UNMIL deployment maps is also available.

Papers:

2016. "Peacekeeping, Compliance with International Norms, and Transactional Sex in Monrovia, Liberia" (with Michael Gilligan, Jenny Guardado, and Sabrina Karim), International Organization.

Supplementary materials

Replication data and code

See our related Monkey Cage post for a discussion of this work. Key statistics presented in this paper were included in the Evaluation Report released by the Office of Internal Oversight Services (OIOS), the UN's audit body, in June 2015. To our knowledge this is the first time a UN agency has noted widespread transactional sex with UN personnel on the basis of population estimates. Our work in Liberia is the source of these estimates.

The OIOS report and its acknowledgement of transactional sex in Liberia were widely covered in the news media, for example by Reuters, the BBC, Voice of America, Al Jazeera, and also in Liberia itself.

"Challenges and Pitfalls of Peacekeeping Economies" (with Michael Gilligan, Jenny Guardado, and Sabrina Karim, under review)

"The Effect of UN Peacekeeping on Migration: Evidence from Liberia" (with Michael Gilligan, Jenny Guardado, and Sabrina Karim, in progress)

Partition

Co-principal investigator (with Philip Roessler and Alexandra Scacco) on a panel survey of nearly 1,400 respondents in pre- and post-partition Sudan and South Sudan in 2010 and 2011, complemented by in-depth interviews of South Sudanese migrants in 2012. Subjects were recruited in Khartoum, and re-interviewed in numerous locations both in Sudan and South Sudan after the country's partition.

Survey-related materials, including sampling instructions, consent scripts, and questionnaires. Annotated code used to process raw data.

Papers:

2014. "Intergroup Violence and Political Attitudes: Evidence from a Dividing Sudan" (with Philip Roessler and Alexandra Scacco), The Journal of Politics 76(3): 649–665.

Supplementary information

Replication data, codebook, and code

"Coping with Partition: Wealth, Security, and Migration in Post-Separation Sudan" (with Philip Roessler and Alexandra Scacco, working paper)

"Identity in Partition: Evidence from a Panel Survey in Sudan" (with Philip Roessler and Alexandra Scacco, in progress)

Mediation

Provided a theory of mediation that incorporates both the decision to select into mediation as well as subsequent negotiations, created an original dataset on conflict management in post-1990 wars, compiled from roughly 15,000 newspaper and wire reports, and presented an empirical analysis that accounts for strategic selection.

See also my interview on research in conflict prevention with the IPI Global Observatory.

Papers:

2012. "International Mediation, Selection Effects, and the Question of Bias", Conflict Management and Peace Science 29(4): 397–424.

"Summer Holidays and Conflict Resolution: Event Timing as an Instrument for the International Mediation of Wars"

"The (Non-)Efficacy of Multi-Party Mediation in Wars Since 1990"

Book manuscript:

International Mediation of Wars: Causes and Consequences

Child soldiering

Developed a formal model to analyze child soldiering and strategic recruitment by rebel organizations, with predictions tested using data from northern Uganda from the Survey of War Affected Youth (SWAY).

Paper:

2013. "The Logic of Child Soldiering and Coercion" (with Christopher Blattman), International Organization 67(1): 65–104.

Robert O. Keohane Award for the best research article published in International Organization by an untenured scholar, 2013

Proofs and code for graphs in theoretical section

Replication data and code for the empirical analysis

Election monitoring

Presented new digit-based statistical techniques to detect electoral fraud using only vote counts. These methods take advantage of common psychological biases in making up numbers: Individuals tend to favor small numbers and avoid repetition.

We applied these methods to the 2009 election results from Iran in the op-ed "The Devil Is in the Digits", Washington Post, 20 June 2009. Available are an annotated version, code and the data we used from the presidential election in Iran and the United States. The op-ed was covered by Geo Magazin and by blogs affiliated with The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Times, Discover Magazine, Nature, Smithsonian Magazine, The Huffington Post, and others. We have responded to key criticisms here and here.

Paper:

2012. "What the Numbers Say: A Digit-Based Test for Election Fraud" (with Alexandra Scacco), Political Analysis 20(2): 211-234.

Supplementary information, including proofs, a discussion of previous research, an example of a Nigerian return sheet, and analysis of data from 1920s Chicago

Replication code and data

Additional Nigerian election returns and correlates:

The following information on elections and their correlates in the Nigerian states of Kaduna and Plateau is available here. All of these files are in pdf-format, and many of the election documents are scanned original ward or polling station reporting sheets. There is also a spreadsheet summarizing availability by local government area.

1991 Population census (locality data), Plateau
1998 Retail prices (LGA data, from 2002 Statistical Yearbook), Plateau
2000 List of polling stations, Jos South LGA
2000 List of polling stations, Kaduna North LGA
2003 Governor election (polling station data), Plateau
2003 Governorship election (state data), Kaduna
2003 House of Representatives elections (constituency data), Kaduna
2003 House of Representatives elections (polling station data), Plateau
2003 Presidential election (polling station data), Plateau
2003 Presidential election (state data), Kaduna
2003 Senate elections (constituency data), Kaduna
2003 Senate elections (polling station data), Plateau
2003 Senate elections (ward data), Kaduna
2003 State House of Assembly elections (constituency data), Kaduna
2003 State House of Assembly elections (polling station data), Plateau
2003 State House of Assembly elections (ward data), Kaduna
2004 LGA elections (ward data), Kaduna
2004 LGA elections (ward data), Plateau
2005 Education data (LGA data, 2004-2005), Plateau
2005 Educational digest (LGA data, 1996-2001), Plateau
2006 Education figures (division data), Kaduna
2009 Social Statistics in Nigeria, National Bureau of Statistics