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What to expect in the virtual classroom for 2005 |
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Gazing into the crystal ball of instructional technology for 2005 requires a disclaimer, but also present an intriguing opportunity to understand future directions as well as the current state of play in the field. A survey of the Internet brings up a host of crystal ball-gazers with predictions for instructional technology in a variety of shapes and sizes. eLearn Magazine for example, conducted interviews with over a dozen technology gurus, including Don Norman and Margaret Driscoll.
More clever small devices
Don Norman, world-renowned usability expert, predicts an increasing availability of clever devices, PDAs and intelligent toys for learning in 2005. One example of this is the recent availability of Blackboard, the learning management system used by NYU, through handheld devices and PDAs. This is a sign of the increasing uptake of small mobile devices, especially amongst students. eLearn Magazine also asked technology futurist Elliot Masie about what's to come in 2005 and the list includes increased emphasis on just-in-time access to learning materials, improved search services, greater variety in learning management systems, including easier-to-use systems, and improved online collaboration tools.
Professor of educational psychology and instructional technology Curt Bonk regards 2005 as a year of significance for open-source courseware, increased usage of blogs, and new innovative approaches to blended learning, where online tools are designed to complement conventional classroom sessions.
Blogs, wikis, RSS, and podcasts
Instructional technologist Kinshuk argued that the maturation of learning objects will be an important advance this year. By contrast, canadian elearning researcher Stephen Downes feels that learning objects will begin to wane because of their rigidity and limitations, but that blogs, wikis, RSS, and podcasts, will continue to grow.
Author and researcher Clark Aldrich claims that the emerging role of gaming in education will continue to 'raise the bar' on engagement and the user-s role in virutal learning environments.
Michael Feldstein at SUNY feels that increased awareness of intellectual property issues amongst academics will make its mark on 2005, but that problems with poorly-designed learning management systems will start to show consequences for the institutions that use them. On the other hand, new knowledge capture and creation software will come to market in response to growing needs.
Quality concerns
Researcher and author Margaret Driscoll, now an IBM consultant, noted the trend in the "polarization" of quality in e-learning. She sees a widening spectrum of quality in available content and learning materials. These new, improved quality tools will help designers and learners to benfit more from the materials they work with. In a similar vein, Karl Kapp at the Institute for Interactive Technologies at Bloomsburg University, believes that this year e-learning professionals will tie investment to elearning outcomes, with new evaluation metrics that show the effectiveness and cost-benefit of investment in educational technology.
Finally, Concordia Univ professor Saul Carlinger takes a more sober view. He foresees no major changes in 2005, but simply more uptake and continued adoption - and improvement - of existing tools and technologies.
Find out more
The Pew Internet study on the future of formal education
http://www.elon.edu/predictions/q13.aspx
This experts' analysis predicts increased uptake of technology and an evolving new style of learning characterized by greater independence. "Enabled by information technologies, the pace of learning in the next decade will increasingly be set by student choices. In ten years, most students will spend at least part of their “school days” in virtual classes, grouped online with others who share their interests, mastery, and skills."
Next-Generation Course Management Systems: Beyond Accidental Pedagogy
http://www.educause.edu/LibraryDetailPage/666&ID=EDU04151
This report contends that a "new generation of learners demand interactive and mobile learning while faculty demand seamless supports and functions" in course management systems. The challenge for the designers of these systems will be to "blend practical instructional technology management issues with the realities of young learners expectations".
Rapid development tools
A new breed of rapid development elearning software tools has been on the rise in the last year. These tools allow for faster, more exact and lower cost prototyping of learning materials and content. Tools include Macromedia Breeze, Articulate, Lersus, SNAP! Studio, Content Point, Webex, and Mindflash.
http://www.learningcircuits.org/2005/jan2005/archibald.htm
Flash vision of the future
A fanciful look into a possible future of personal mass media, where Amazon merges with Google to create Googlezon, with thought-provoking consequences for technology, privacy and culture. (Flash, 8 mins)
http://mccd.udc.es/orihuela/epic/
by Robert Whelan
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