V53.0741 4 Points: Spring 2002
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
Office: 269 Mercer, Room 807; Email: bruce.buenodemesquita@nyu.edu
Office Hours: Monday 3-5 and whenever I am in my office. Feel free to stop
by.
This course explores the conditions that lead to the initiation, escalation, spread, termination, and consequences of international conflict as well as the circumstances that promote, preserve, or restore peace. The main objective is to identify strategies that promote cooperative solutions to international disputes and to evaluate those strategies in terms of their historical effectiveness. The course emphasizes the application of simple game theoretic models of rational action as tools for assessing relations between nations, coupled with statistical and historical analysis of classes of events. No mathematics beyond high school math is needed for this course. Class sessions will build on and expand beyond the required readings. I anticipate lively discussion and efforts to relate theoretical ideas to current circumstances.
There will be a mid-term and a final examination or, in lieu of the final exam, if the class is small enough, students will have the option to prepare a research paper as described below. Research papers must develop and test one or more hypotheses about international cooperation or conflict. I will discuss the paper with each student who elects this option and will happily read preliminary drafts or sections. The midterm and/or preliminary drafts of the research paper will serve as a means for the student to receive feedback on how s/he is doing in the course. The final grade will not include the midterm grade unless the midterm grade is higher than the final exam grade. The final exam will count as 50-75 percent of the total grade, the higher value if it exceeds the grade on the mid-term. The midterm, if higher than the final in grade, counts for 25 percent of the total grade in the course. Class work counts for the remaining 25 percent. If a research paper is written instead of taking the final, then it will count for 50 percent of the grade, with the midterm and class work each being an additional 25 percent.
The core readings for the course are: Geoffrey Blainey, The Causes of War and and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Principles of International Politics. Additionally, we will read a number of journal articles and research manuscripts.
Week:
January 23: Introduction: Discussion of class speculation about war, peace, and world order
No Required Reading
January 30: Thinking About War: Structure, Pairs of States, Individual States, Leaders, Citizens
Blainey, chapters 1-7; Bueno de Mesquita, chapters 1-2.
February 6: International Conflict and Cooperation: A Structural Viewpoint
Bueno de Mesquita, chapter 3
February 13: Balance of Power
Blainey, Chapter 8; Bueno de Mesquita, Chapters 6-7
February 18: Presidents Day Holiday
February 20: Power Transition/Hegemonic War and Appeasement
Bueno de Mesquita, pp. 458-468; Robert Powell, In the Shadow of Power, Chapter 4. Bueno de Mesquita, “Pride of Place: The Origins of German Hegemony,” World Politics, (October, 1990), pp. 28-52.
February 27: Alliances: Reliable or Unreliable Cooperation
Bueno de Mesquita, chapter 14, Blainey, chapter 15.
March 6: International Cooperation and Conflict: A Domestic Perspective
Bueno de Mesquita, chapters 12-13
March 11, March 13: No Class Due to Spring Break
March 20: Terrorism: How Does it Fit In?
Bueno de Mesquita, chapter 11
I will also help prepare you to review for the midterm.
March 25: MIDTERM
No class on March 27th. I must be out of town at a conference on March 24-27
April 3: Strategic Theories of War
Bueno de Mesquita, chapter 16.
April 10: A Domestic and International Account of the Cold War’s End
Bueno de Mesquita, chapter 9
April 17: The Democratic Peace: Does it Exist and If So, Why?
Bueno de Mesquita, Morrow, Siverson and Smith, “An Institutional Explanation of the Democratic Peace” American Political Science Review 93(December 1999):791-807. Or, chapter 5 of draft book manuscript (The Logic of Political Survival) for a less technical explanation.
April 24: What Happens When Wars End?
Bueno de Mesquita and Siverson, “War and the Survival of Political Leaders: A Comparative Study of Regime Types and Political Accountability,” American Political Science Review, December 1995; Suzanne Werner, “Absolute and Limited War: The Possibilities of Foreign Imposed Regime Change,” International Interactions 22:67-88.
May 1: What Do We Know About War, Peace, and World Order?
Discussion and Review