G53:1700.001: Core Graduate Course in International Relations

Spring 2004

Prof. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita 212-998-3521

726 Broadway, 7^th Floor, Rm. 750 Bbd2@nyu.edu

Office hours: Tuesday morning, by appointment, or just drop in when I am in my office.

The core graduate course in international relations is designed to explore the main issues and research strategies in the study of international security and international political economy. Readings, therefore, include review articles, important research papers and three books providing alternative approaches to the subject. The three required books are John Vasquez and Colin Elman, eds., Realism and the Balancing of Power (hereafter Vasquez and Elman); Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and David Lalman, War and Reason (hereafter War and Reason); and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Alastair Smith, Randolph M. Siverson, and James D. Morrow, The Logic of Political Survival (hereafter BdM2S2).

Students are expected to come to class prepared to discuss the week’s readings, with special emphasis on the way in which hypotheses are developed, the fundamental elements of research design, and with ideas about how the research questions in the readings might be better examined or about future directions in research on the topic under discussion. Critiques of the reading assignments should focus on any problems in logic or evidence and should offer concrete and feasible ideas about how to improve on the research.

Each student will write one short paper (about 5 pages) and one longer paper (whatever length is appropriate to convey the motivation, develop the research design, and provide either formal proofs or empirical tests of key propositions). The two papers can be on the same or different topics. The short paper should focus on situating an original research idea within its relevant literature. The paper should briefly discuss the research design, the structure of the theory if original, data sources if relevant, and present quick-and-dirty (i.e., simple) tests of one or more hypotheses using data available for downloading from the web or other sources. The final, longer paper should derive hypotheses either from arguments in the literature or from an original formal model and, provide careful statistical analyses of testable claims that follow from the argument. This paper should not simply be a rehash of research by others, but a significant original research undertaking.

January 26: System Structure and Conflict: Neo-Realism

Part I in Vasquez and Elman; Jack Levy, “The Causes of War and the Conditions of Peace,” Annual Review of Political Science (1998).

February 2: System and Structure: Neo-Realism Continued

Part II in Vasquez and Elman; Emerson Niou, Peter Ordeshook and Gregory Rose, Balance of Power, chs. 2-4; Robert Powell, “Guns, butter, and Anarchy,” American Political Science Review (March 1993).

February 9: System Structure and Conflict: Power Transition

A.F. K. Organski and Jacek Kugler, The War Ledger, pp. 13-63; Woosang Kim and James Morrow, "When do Shifts in Power Lead to War?" American Journal of Political Science, 1992; Robert Powell, “Uncertainty, Shifting Power, and Appeasement,” American Political Science Review (December 1996).

February 16: Presidents Day: No Class

February 23: National Interest & War

War and Reason, Chapters 2-3 and 6; James Fearon, “Rationalist Explanations for War,” International Organization (Summer 1995).

March 1: Alliances, Deterrence and War

Paul Huth and Bruce Russett, “Testing Deterrence Theory,” World Politics (1990); Richard Ned Lebow and Janice Stein, “Deterrence, the Elusive Dependent Variable,” World Politics (1990); Alastair Smith, "Alliance Formation and War," International Studies Quarterly (December 1995); Paul Huth, “Deterrence and International Conflict,” Annual Review of Political Science (1999).

March 8: Individual Decision-Makers & National Policy

Robert Putnam, "Diplomacy and Domestic Politics," International Organization, 1988; BdM2S2, Chapters 3, 8, 9; Hein E. Goemans “Fighting for Survival: The Fate of Leaders and the Duration of War,” Journal of Conflict Resolution (October 2000)

March 15: Spring Recess

March 22: Individual Decision-Makers and Audience Costs:

James Fearon, “Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes,” American Political Science Review (September 1994); Peter Partell and Glenn Palmer, “Audience Costs and Interstate Crises: An Empirical Assessment of Fearon’s Model of Dispute Outcomes,” International Studies Quarterly, June 1999; Kenneth Schultz, “Looking for Audience Costs,”Journal of Conflict Resolution February 2001

Short Paper Due on March 15^th.

March 29: Democratic Peace: Systemic, National, & Leadership/SIE Explanations

Kelly Kadera, Mark Crescenzi and Megan Shannon, “Democratic Survival, Peace, and War in the International System,” American Journal of Political Science 2003; War and Reason, Chapters 4-5; BdM2S2, Chapter 6; Zeev Maoz and Bruce Russett, "Normative and Structural Causes of Democratic Peace, 1946-1986." American Political Science Review, (September 1993); Kenneth Schultz, “Domestic Opposition and Signaling in International Crises,” American Political Science Review (December 1998).

April 5: International Trade

Douglas Nelson, “Endogenous Tariff Theory: A Critical Survey,” American Journal of Political Science (1988); Ronald Rogowski, “Trade and the Variety of Democratic Institutions,” International Organization (1987); Fiona McGillivray, “Party Discipline as a Determinant of the Endogenous Formation of Tariffs,” American Journal of Political Science (April 1997); Michael Gilligan, “Lobbying as a Private Good with Intra-Industry Trade, International Studies Quarterly (September 1997).

April 12: International Currency & Banks Regulation

J. Lawrence Broz and Jeffry Frieden, “The Political Economy of International Monetary Relations,” Annual Review of Political Science (2001); William Clark and Mark Hallerberg, “Mobile Capital, Domestic Institutions, and Electorally Induced Monetary and Fiscal Policy,” American Political Science Review (June 2000); David LeBlang and Shanker Satyanath, “Using Political Variables to Improve Currency Crisis Forecasts,” Ms.

April 19: International Organizations and Compliance

Beth Simmons, “Compliance with International Agreements,” Annual Review of Political Science (1998); Martha Finnemore and Kathryn Sikkink, “The Constructivist Research Program in International Relations and Comparative Politics,” Annual Review of Political Science (2001); George Downs, “Constructing Effective Environmental Regimes,” Annual Review of Political Science (2000); Elinor Ostrom, “Coping with Tragedies of the Commons,” Annual Review of Political Science (1999).

April 26: Presentation of Class Research Results

May 3: Presentation of Class Research Results continued; Concluding Remarks

Final research paper due. (I do not object to giving an incomplete if extra time is needed and significant progress has been made on the paper. I prefer a good paper to an on-time paper.)