Punishing the Prince:  A Theory of Interstate Relations, Political Institutions, and Leader Change

Fiona McGillivray and Alastair Smith

Wilf Family Department of Politics

New York University

19 W. 4th St

New York, NY 10012



This document contains links to all the data, program files and statistical output report in Punishing the Prince.  We have put the data on this web page to allow replication of our empirical tests and to allow other to examine alternative specifications.  All the statistical data is in stata format. In addition to the data we include the program files which we used to compile the data. These files should allow anyone to check the coding of the variables and detect any errors (let us know if you find any systematic errors). These files were primarily for our use so they are not remarked or explained as my as they might be- sorry. You will need to change the file directories in the program files to have the programs run, but otherwise everything should work. 


Chapter 4: Experiments

We report a series of human subject experiments. The full data are presented in the book. Here we include the original output from the experiment and our statistical tests.



Chapter 5: Trade

The main data is contained in trade_AUG2004.dta.

The zip file TradeProgramOutput.zip contains the programs and routines to analyse the data and the output from these analyses.  The primary file to look at is leaderbook_trade_tests_AUG2004.do. This file constructs the data (in the process calling numerous other files) and carries out the analysis. There are a variety of output files which look at different robustness scenarios.


ConstitutentTradeData.zip contains alastair.dta (Trade data provided by John ONeal), bdm2s2_leader_year_data.dta (Logic of political survival leader data), bdm2s2_nation_year_data_may2002.dta (a variety of institutional and economic variables from the logic of political survival data)


Chapter 6: Sovereign Debt

This chapter tests the effect of leader change and institutions on sovereign debt.  The data are EMBI  sovereign debt indices (typically the JP Morgan indices). These data were obtained via datastream on June 1st 2004.

The zip file SovereignDebtAnalysis.zip  contains the main data files, program files and output. The principal file of interest is basic_bond_analysis_AUG2004.do. This file has the code which compiles all the various data, calls sub-routines and carries out the analysis. The zip file constituentSovereignDebtData.zip contains several data sets which are used to construct the data.

The final zip file has graphs of the data and leader change for each nation (SoveriegnDebtGraphs.zip).