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The Clinton Visit to South Asia: A Primer

Global Beat Issue Brief No. 57
By Alyssa Ayres and Marshall Bouton,
Asia Society, March 15, 2000

This Issue Brief was produced
in collaboration with the Asia Society

Not since President Jimmy Carter traveled to India 22 years ago has a U.S. President set foot in South Asia. President Nixon's visit to Pakistan was even farther back-some thirty years. And no U.S. President has ever visited Bangladesh. These facts alone mark President Clinton's upcoming week in South Asia with some sense of historic significance; yet journalists and South Asia watchers are already beginning to ask how deep this significance will be, and whether this trip will be one of substance-or mostly symbolism.

The answer, in brief, is both. This trip will make good use of the kinds of symbolic statements that our media-savvy President knows will carry messages to the peoples of South Asia and America alike. But that doesn't necessarily mean that these will be acts of empty symbolism. What we are likely to see during March 20-26 are a carefully choreographed set of meetings and events which will make visible the direction the United States wants to be headed in the subcontinent. That direction is one of engagement.

In the weeks since the White House announced the Presidential visit to South Asia, defined as India and Bangladesh, a diplomatic and media controversy began to brew over the President's itinerary. Will he or won't he? Should he or shouldn't he? Two weeks prior to the South Asia trip, the White House finally announced that the President would make a stop in Pakistan on his return to the U.S. Regardless of whether one agrees or not with the decision, it certainly mobilized the South Asia-watchers to pull together, crystallize their opinions, and make clear policy recommendations to the White House. While many such recommendations have taken the form of private memorandums to the President, one letter has just been made public which contains several well-argued positions.

The Independent Task Force on South Asia, chaired by Richard Haas and Stephen Cohen, both of the Brookings Institution, released the contents of their letter to the President on Monday, March 13th.

It clearly advises that:
  • the US ought to push decisively forward in many areas of engagement with India;
  • we should advocate for but not belabor the nonproliferation agenda;
    • we should engage Pakistan but by no means endorse the military government, and the engagement should be towards combating terrorism.
    This "open letter" got sufficient attention in the Clinton Administration to receive a reference in the March 14th address Secretary of State Madeleine Albright made on the Administration's policy toward South Asia.
    Secretary Albright's speech provides the clearest indications for what we can expect to see during President Clinton's South Asia trip. She details the issues in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan that the United States seeks to pursue.

     

    Bangladesh


    President Clinton will spend an afternoon in Bangladesh. The US-Bangladesh relationship has no outstanding disagreements troubling it; in fact, Bangladesh's recent signature and ratification of the CTBT establishes a welcome context for Clinton's arrival. Clinton is likely to focus on several key areas in Bangladesh:

    • Strength of Bangladesh's NGO sector and their innovative approaches to development. Organizations like Grameen Bank, Proshika, and BRAC are now models for initiatives worldwide. Grameen's influence and their microcredit lending approach in particular has even been implemented in cities in the U.S.
  • Strength of Bangladesh's democracy -- a democracy in an overwhelmingly Muslim nation.
    • Gas and oil reserves in Bangladesh and their potential. In her address on March 14th, Secretary of State Madeleine Albright remarked that US investment in Bangladesh has increased 30 fold in the past three years. U.S. investment opportunity in the country will be an important item for discussion, and it is likely that the President will also encourage Bangladesh to reconsider the opportunity to sell gas to India.

     

    India


    President Clinton will spend the bulk of his visit in India, as the larger purpose of this trip is to establish broader, more multi-faceted ties with India. There are so many areas for India and the United States to seek further collaboration on, and this visit ought to give the process further momentum.

    By now it is a commonplace assertion that India's science and technology sector and specialists are world-class. President Clinton will meet with leaders in the dynamic knowledge-based industries like information technology and biotechnology. But our US business interests are not the only beneficiaries of an expanded US-India business relationship: a progressively deeper Indian commitment to compete in a globalized free market economy is surely the best way to alleviate the burden of poverty facing India today. The President will take up issues of business engagement and advocate for increasing trade in both these contexts. He will probably also address the scope for our joint cooperation on matter of energy: in production, as well as in finding new, more economical ways to produce cleaner fuels for a sustainable way of life.

    President Clinton will likely address the commitment our two democracies share to managing our multi-ethnic societies through democratic processes. This commitment can be a potent antidote to the poison of ethnic enmity-- all too virulent -- now threatening many nations. How we can strengthen our commitment via cooperation on issues of human rights and governance may be important starting points for an expanded US-India relationship dealing with social issues.

    Security issues will continue to be a bone of contention, but will not overshadow all other issues of the bilateral relationship. The President will probably suggest that signing onto the major treaties (CTBT, FMCT) would be what the U.S. desires, but the absence of that will not foil the visit. This is a shift from prior U.S. policy toward the region; we ought to closely watch what sorts of responses this approach elicits. Regarding Kashmir, the President will express concern and will reiterate the offer for the U.S. to assist if both parties so desire, but he will not suggest any situation of forced mediation.

     

    Pakistan


    In public statements, Clinton and his Administration have made it clear that his stop in Pakistan is not intended to "endorse" the military regime of General Pervaiz Musharraf. Indeed, the stop itself will in all probability not exceed several hours. Whether the President will make a public address in Pakistan is yet to be determined. What is certain, however, are U.S. security interests in Pakistan. Following last summer's Kargil misadventure, October's coup, and the December hijacking of an Indian Airlines plane, Pakistan appears volatile and in need of encouragement to return to its democratic recent past. President Clinton is likely to:

    • Underscore that seeking to resolve territorial disputes by force will be counterproductive;
  • Encourage Pakistan to bring influence to bear on Afghanistan to cooperate with the U.S. on issues of terrorism
    • Strongly encourage a clearly defined timetable for return to democracy
    Privately, Clinton will probably warn Pakistan that many recent terrorist activities with suspected links to Pakistan have caused great alarm among the international community, and that the nation might find itself labeled a state sponsor of terrorism.

     

    * * *


    This South Asia trip has been on the Presidential agenda for nearly two years. For a variety of reasons it was postponed until this year, and now will occur at a time in which President Clinton has barely 8 months left in office. But the trip should not be viewed as a dramatic moment in which the US relationships to India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh will be transformed; rather, it should be viewed as the first step on a much longer road toward greater cooperation with all three nations-regardless of the administration. Whether the next administration will be Republican or Democrat will likely not affect the direction of our foreign policy shift toward building stronger ties.

    In the coming months, the best gauge of progress will be the extent to which we see greater business engagement and a surge of new exchange and cooperative programs with India. The Singh-Talbott talks will continue; a new forum for governance and democracy is being launched by the US National Endowment for Democracy in collaboration with the Confederation of Indian Industry. A sure sign of the visit's success would be the development of frequent and sustained high-level contacts between India and the U.S., such as cabinet level visits, ongoing consultations, dialogue on global and regional security issues. Ultimately, the institutionalization of dialogues and exchanges -- such as what the US has with China -- will mark a successful shift in relations with India.


    Experts:
     
    Marshall Bouton
    Executive Vice President
    Asia Society
    Phone: 212-327-9266
    E-mail: mbouton@asiasoc.org
    http://www.asiasociety.org/
     
    George Perkovich
    Director
    Secure World Program
    W. Alton Jones Foundation
    Phone: 804-295-2134
    E-mail: gperkovich@wajones.org
    http://www.wajones.org/
     
    Frank Wisner
    Vice Chairman, External Affairs
    American International Group, Inc.
    (former U.S. Ambassador to India, 1994-97)
    Phone: 212-770-5265
    E-mail: frank.wisner@aig.com
    http://www.aig.com
     
    See Also:
  • Asia Source Experts Directory (from the Asia Society)
  •  
     
     
    Additional Analysis:
  • Full contents of the Brookings Institution-Council on Foreign Relations Independent Task Force on South Asia Open Letter to the President are available at http://www.brookings.edu/views/articles/haass/20000313.htm
  • For a more in-depth look at the many issues involved in US relations with the nations of South Asia after the Cold War, see the report of the Asia Society's historic 1994 study mission: http://www.asiasociety.org/publications/saandus_index.html
  •  
    For Further Information:
     
  • The Global Beat's South Asia Links Archives
  • U.S. State Department Bureau of South Asian Affairs
    http://www.state.gov/www/regions/sa/index.html
  • Clinton's South Asia Trip: Human Rights Concerns
    As President Clinton prepares for his trip to South Asia, Human Rights Watch urges that he give priority to pressing human rights issues in the region. As President Clinton prepares for his trip to South Asia, Human Rights Watch urges that he give priority to pressing human rights issues in the region. The President's upcoming visit represents a unique opportunity to engage the Indian, Pakistani, and Bangladeshi governments on these issues and to use his influence to support individuals and groups in the region struggling for democratic institutions and human rights.
    Full briefings appear on the Human Rights Watch website at http://www.hrw.org/campaigns/sasia
  • The Islamic Republic of Pakistan: Government Official Homepage
    http://www.pak.gov.pk/
    (includes section on U.S. President's visit to Pakistan at:
    http://pak.gov.pk/temp/index-us.htm )
  • South Asian Journalists Association
    http://www.saja.org/

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