V53.0395 : Elections: Voters, Candidates, and Money

Professor Jonathan Nagler Fall, 2002
Office: 269 Mercer Street - Room 808 Phone: 992-9676
jonathan.nagler@nyu.edu

This course will focus on elections. We will look at the role of candidates, campaign spending, and voters. We will examine the major theories of voting in U.S. elections, as well as the evidence for those theories. We will start with models of political socialization, then consider what could be considered its primary competitor: the standard spatial model of voting which is based on the issue positions of voters and candidates. This includes what characteristics allow a candidate to raise money. And we will look at what voters focus on in making their voting decision. We then consider the role of information and uncertainty in elections: how voters acquire information, and how uncertainty about candidates' positions influences voter behavior. We will also look at the nature of elections in the United States for Congress and examine why incumbents win with such frequency, includes what characteristics allow a candidate to raise money. We will spend considerable time on the role of money in congressional elections.

Each week one or more students will be selected to present and discuss some portion of the week's reading.

Your grade will be based on the following

• Class Participation: 20%
• Two short papers discussing the readings (20% each): 40%
• A research paper due at the end of the term: 40%

Required Reading:

Jacobson, Gary C., 2001, The Politics Of Congressional Elections, 5th edition, Addison Wesley, New York, NY. [ISBN: 0321070690]

Hinich, Melvin J. and Michael C. Munger. 1997. Analytical Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, ISBN: 0521565677.

Readings listed for each week, available in a coursepack.

Week I: Course Overview and Voting Overview

• Lecture on Elections Research

Weeks II - III: Congressional Elections

• Jacobson

  • Context and Candidates. Read: Jacobson, Chapters 1,2,3.
  • Campaigns and Voters. Read: Jacobson, Chapters 4 and 5.
  • Politics and Elections. Read: Jacobson, Chapters 6 and 7.
  • Representation and Elections. Read: Jacobson, Chapter 8.

Week IV and V : Early (Psychological Attachment) Models of Voting

• Campbell, Angus, Philip E. Converse, Warren E. Miller  Donald E. Stokes. 1960. The American Voter. Chicago, Illinois: University of Chicago Press, ISBN: 0226092542, selected chapters.

  • Chapter 2) Theoretical Orientation
  • Chapter 3) Perceptions of the Parties and Candidates
  • Chapter 4) Partisan Choice
  • Chapters 12-14) Groups, Class, Economic Antecedents of Behavior
• Nie, Norman H., Sidney Verba  John R. Petrocik. 1980. The Changing American Voter. Cambridge, Mass: Harvard University Press, selected chapters.

  • 6-10) New Issues, Conceptualization, Issue Consistency

Week VI : The Spatial Model

• Hinich, Melvin J. and Michael C. Munger. 1997. Analytical Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, ISBN: 0521565677.

  • Chapter 1: The analysis of Politics
  • Chapter 2: The Spatial Model of Downs and Black: One Policy Dimension;
  • Chapter 3: Two Dimensions; Multiple Dimensions:
  • Chapter 4: Multiple Dimensions
• Downs, Anthony. 1957. An Economic Theory Of Democracy, Chapter 8. [ISBN: 0060417501]

Week VII: Economic Voting

• Lecture:

  • Time series results on the economy and voting for President (Tufte; Erikson) and Congress (Kramer).
  • Voting based on perceptions of personal finances versus perceptions of the national economy (Kiewiet and Kinder).
  • Individual level models incorporating both issues and perceptions of the economy (Alvarez and Nagler).
• Kinder, Donald R.  D. Roderick Kiewiet. 1981. ``Sociotropic Politics: The American Case.'' British Journal of Political Science 11:129-161. ``Dimensions of Sociotropic Behavior: Group-Based Judgments of Fairness and Well-Being.'' American Journal of Political Science 41:284-308.
• Alvarez, R. Michael  Jonathan Nagler. 1998. ``Economics, Entitlements and Social Issues: Voter Choice in the 1996 Presidential Election,'' American Journal of Political Science, 42: 1349-1363.
• Additional Readings:

  • Kuklinski, James and Darrell West. 1981. ``Economic Expectations and Voting Behavior in the United States Senate and House Elections.'' American Political Science Review 75:436-447.
  • Weatherford, Stephen M. 1983. ``Economic Voting and the `Symbolic Policies' Argument: A Reinterpretation and Synthesis.'' American Political Science Review 77: 158-174.
  • Conover, Pamela Johnston  Stanley Feldman. 1986. ``Emotional Reactions to the Economy: I'm Mad as Hell and I'm Not Going to Take It Anymore.'' American Journal Of Political Science 30:50-78.
  • Lau, Richard R. and David O. Sears. 1981. ``Cognitive Links Between Economic Grievances and Political Responses.'' Political Behavior 4: 279-302.

Week VIII: Persuasion

• O'Keefe, Daniel J. 2002. Persuasion: Theory and Research, 2nd edition, Sage Publications, ISBN: 0761925392.

  • Chapter 1: Introduction
  • Chapters 6-8: Elaboration Likelihood Model, Persuasive Effects, Source Factors.
• Riker, William H. 1985. The Art of Political Manipulation, Yale University Press, ISBN: 0300035926.

  • Preface, Chapters 1 and 2.

Week IX and X: Information

• Lecture:

  • Models of information reception and processing (Zaller).
• Alvarez, R. Michael. 1998. Information and Elections. Revised 1st edition ed. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, ISBN: 0472085751.

  • Chapter 1: Introduction
  • Chapter 2: Elections, Information and Campaigns
  • Chapter 3: Theory of Uncertainty and Elections
• Hinich, Melvin J. and Michael C. Munger. 1997. Analytical Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, ISBN: 0521565677.

  • Chapter 6: Uncertainty and Policy Preference

Week XI: Campaigns

• Reading: To Be Announced.

Week XII: Electoral Systems

• Cox, Gary. 1997. Making Votes Count: Strategic Coordination in the World's Electoral System. Cambridge University Press. ISBN: 0521585279.

  • Chapter 1: Introduction
  • Chapter 2: Duverger's Propositions
  • Chapter 3: On Electoral Systems
  • Chatper 4: Strategic Voting in Single-Member Single-Ballot Systems
  • Chapter 5: Strategic Voting in Multimember Districts

• Hinich, Melvin J. and Michael C. Munger. 1997. Analytical Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, ISBN: 0521565677.

  • Chapter 5: Social Choice and Other Voting Models.

Week XIII: Money in Elections - Again

• Reading: To Be Announced.

Week XIV: Discussion